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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-07-14T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12765/-1
CME Note: There was an M2.4 flare starting at 01:07, clear dimmings and rising/opening loops.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-07-16T05:14Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -69
Dst min. time: 2017-07-16T16:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-07-16T15:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-07-14T05:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 800
Longitude (deg): W020
Latitude (deg): S05
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: Second CME analysed in combination with a slightly lower velocity (700km/s) and a more westerly longitude (40W) based on LASCO and STEREO-A imagery.
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 39.90 hour(s)
Difference: -9.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2017-07-14T13:20Z

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